The Probability of Area

In reality, you’ll never have enough time, energy, or resources to search an area as thoroughly as you would like. Therefore, you have to step back, take a deep breath, and give thought to areas your missing pet will likely be found. In search terminology, this is called POA (The Probability of Area).

You already know the area where your pet has gone missing. In size, this area could vary from yards or meters to miles, depending on the animal. Think of your search area in terms of quadrants, each representing about 25% of the total. If it helps, draw or print a grid so you can jot down some notes in each of the quadrants.

What kinds of things should you consider? A good POA is based on various factors…
1. The type of animal
2. The patterns of behavior in the animal (consider indoor vs. outdoor cats/dogs)
3. The environment of the animal
4. The temperament of the animal (you know this better than anyone!)
5. The motivation of the animal (What caused it to run? Was it scared because of fireworks? Was it simply curious?)
6. The terrain of the search area
7. The weather

Now, pick the quadrant that you feel your lost pet will likely be located. Search that area to the best of your ability. If you get no results, that’s not bad news! That only means that the chances are higher (the probability goes up to 33.3%) that your pet is in one of the three remaining quadrants! Just repeat your efforts in the next best quadrant.

Remember, the POA is a strategy and a great way to begin. Very rarely can an area be searched with 100% efficacy. If your pet isn’t found, even with a very high Probability of Detection POD%, there is a small possibility that the missing animal was missed or wasn’t in the search area at the start with.