The Probability of Detection

Let’s take search strategy a step further. Before reading on, take a look at how to find The Probability of Area first. The Probability of Area is a great starting point and goes hand-in-hand with The Probability of Detection.

By definition, the Probability of detection (POD) is the chance that the missing animal could be detected by searchers if it was, in fact, within the search area. The goal, of course, is to find the missing animal. Often, though, in the search for the animal a lot of critical clues are missed. So it’s best to focus on finding the clues and eventually the animal will be found because of it. It’s critical that any potential physical evidence is not missed during a search that could be put to good use and give clues to the next step.

What are some factors that could raise or lower a POD? These factors include the size of the search area, type of terrain (mountainous vs flat ground), or heavy foliage (which could serve as concealment spots for animals) vs a lawn with no trees or bushes. Other considerations are the behavior of the animal you are looking for, the number or searchers, and the ease with which they can search in a particular area.

If you have 2 searchers in a certain area and they are spaced 15 feet apart, then maybe you could assign a POD of 90%. If these same 2 searchers are spaced 50 feet apart, then the POD will drop to 60%. You get the idea – the more space that isn’t seen or covered by a searcher causes the POD to drop.

The POD is most useful on animals like cats and reptiles which tend to limit their travel distance from the point of escape. Larger animals such as dogs and horses or any animal that can potentially travel longer distances faster, a POD is not impossible, but more difficult to predict.